Dividend Policy and Capital Structure

B

Investors view a stock repurchase as a positive signal and a stock issue as a negative signal. A repurchase may mean that management believes the stock is undervalued. To understand why a stock issue is viewed negatively, consider the following circumstances: A biotech company has a new blockbuster drug that will increase its profitability, but to produce and market the drug, the company needs to raise capital. If the company sells new stock, then as sales (and thus profits) occur, the price of the stock will rise. The current shareholders will do well but not as well as they would have had the company not sold more stock before the share price increased. Thus, it is assumed that management will prefer to finance growth with non-stock sources.

The other statements are false. A person who believes in the clientele effect and a proponent of the "bird-in-hand" theory would not have similar views on dividend policy. The clientele effect suggests that different groups of investors want different dividend levels (often based on tax status), and through the law of supply and demand, investors will select companies that meet their needs. Thus, dividend payout policy does not matter. According to the "bird-in-hand" theory, investors prefer dividends to capital appreciation because they view the former (D1/ P0) as less risky than the latter (g, or growth rate). Stand-alone risk is the company's individual, or unique, risk. An undiversified shareholder is concerned with stand-alone risk. A diversified shareholder is most concerned about undiversifiable, or systematic, risk. Both Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis are used to estimate stand-alone risk.