When a mature firm raises the dividend, signaling theory implies that its stock price ________. When a growth firm cuts the dividend, signaling theory implies that its stock price ________.
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The signaling theory is properly applicable only to mature firms which have had stable dividend policies. In its pure form, the theory regards dividend changes as signals of management's forecasts of future earnings. Such an assumption is not fully justifiable for young, growth firms, which may cut dividends simply to supply retained earnings capital for expansion projects, without any signaling about the firm's future earnings prospects. Indeed, many growth firms pay no dividends at all for quite some time without an adverse effect on their stock prices.
Hence, the increase in the dividend of a mature firm is taken as a signal by investors - under the signaling hypothesis - that the management's forecasts of future earnings are quite favorable, leading to a rise in the stock price. On the other hand, for a growth firm, such a signaling conclusion does not necessarily hold.