Tamira Scott, CFA, manager of an index fund, needs to raise money soon (although not immediately) to pay taxes. Although she believes in the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), she remembers that there are a few anomalies she may take advantage of to earn higher returns. Which of the following actions is most unlikely to provide excess returns? Scott should purchase stocks in:
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A. B. C. D.B
According to event studies of the semi-strong form of the EMH, stock splits do not have a short run or long run impact on returns. This finding supports the EMH.
The other choices are considered anomalies. That is, they reject the semi-strong form of the EMH, and suggest that investors can earn excess returns by exploiting these anomalies. The January anomaly (from a time-series test of the semi-strong EMH) suggests that investors can earn excess returns by buying stocks in December and selling them in the first week of January, due to tax-induced trading at year-end. Cross-sectional tests of the semi-strong form EMH have shown that low P/E stocks, stocks of firms neglected by analysts, and stocks of firms with high book to value ratios can produce superior returns.