Hypothesis Testing for Trader Performance: CFA® Level 1 Exam Insights

Expected Excess Returns Evaluation: Skill or Luck?

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Question

As the head of a trading desk at a major bank, it is your job to evaluate whether the superior performance of a trader is due to skill or luck. To test this, you set up the following hypothesis:

Ho: Expected excess returns = 0 -

H1: Expected excess returns > 0 -

The excess returns are returns adjusted for risk using a proprietary factor model. In this set-up, which of the following is/are true?

I. You must employ a one-tailed test.

II. H1 is a directional alternative.

III. Your critical z-statistics will be larger than the z-statistics in the case where the alternative is specified as H1: Excess returns are non-zero.

Answers

Explanations

Click on the arrows to vote for the correct answer

A. B. C. D. E. F. G.

D

The alternative hypothesis, H1, does not assign a specific value to the expected excess return but specifies a directional region. Since it specifies the region to the right of 0 as an alternative, he must employ a right-tailed test i.e. a one-sided test. Note that the critical z-statistics in one-tailed regressions are always lower than the z-statistics in the corresponding two-tailed test.