Expected Inflation Rate and Stock Value - CFA Level 1 Exam Preparation

Impact of Expected Inflation Rate on Stock Value

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Question

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation rate ________ the value of a stock.

Answers

Explanations

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A. B. C. D.

B

When expected inflation rises, the expected rate of return demanded by the investors increases. All else equal, this can happen only if the price of the stock drops.

An increase in the expected inflation rate can have an impact on the value of a stock. The correct answer to this question is B. decreases.

Here's a detailed explanation:

When the expected inflation rate increases, it affects several factors that can influence the value of a stock:

  1. Discounted Cash Flows: The value of a stock is determined by the discounted cash flows it generates for its investors. Higher expected inflation erodes the purchasing power of future cash flows, reducing their value. As a result, the intrinsic value of the stock decreases.

  2. Interest Rates: Inflation and interest rates are closely related. When inflation is expected to rise, central banks may respond by increasing interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for companies, which can negatively impact their profitability. As a result, the expected future cash flows of the company may be lower, leading to a decrease in the stock's value.

  3. Investor Demand: Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. When investors expect higher inflation, they may demand higher returns to compensate for the loss in purchasing power. As a result, they may be less willing to pay a premium for stocks, reducing their demand. Decreased demand for stocks can lead to a decline in their value.

It's important to note that the relationship between inflation and stock values is not always straightforward and can be influenced by other factors such as economic conditions, market sentiment, and company-specific factors. However, in general, an increase in the expected inflation rate tends to decrease the value of a stock.