A manufacturer of headache medicine claims it is 70 percent effective within a few minutes. That is, out of every 100 users 70 get relief within a few minutes. A group of 12 patients are given the medicine. If the claim is true, what is the probability that 8 have relief within a few minutes?
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This is a binomial probability. The probability of getting r successes out of n trials where the probability of success each trial is p and probability of failure each trial is q (where q = 1-p) is given by: n!(p^r)[q^(n-r)]/r!(n-r)!. Here n = 12, r = 8,p = 0.7 and q = 0.3. Therefore we have 12!(0.7^8)(0.3^4)/8!4! = 0.231.